Climate Change - has it been cancelled?

View Professor Bob Carter on Shine TV explaining why New Zealanders should oppose the Emissions Trading Scheme Bill now being debated by a Parliamentary Select Committee: For YouTube LINK

Flogging or jail for bad driving

For Manukau and other New Zealand cities flogging could be the answer to the "boy racer" problem.

Flogging or jail for bad driving | The Australian

Government plays ducks and drakes with airport sale veto

Investors have received a clear signal they can’t trust the Government to stay out of their business, says Business NZ, following the Government’s decision to veto the Canadian bid for Auckland International Airport .

Chief executive Phil O’Reilly says rule changes by the Government, late in the piece, had impacted investor confidence.

“Just because of loud shouting by some, the Government has decided to play ducks and drakes – not only with international investors acting in good faith, but also with the retirement nest eggs of many New Zealanders and that should not be acceptable.”

Mr O’Reilly says the Government has indicated there is a group of strategic assets that could be treated in the same way if they were ever for sale to a foreign investor.

“If this is the case then the Government should tell New Zealanders what they are, so that investors know the conditions under which they are investing.

MMP Raises its Stupid Head Again

The absurd nature of MMP which has been apparent to many for a long time reached new heights of madness this week when Foreign Minister Winston Peters and his New Zealand First party slammed New Zealand’s free trade agreement with China. The Labour led government is scrambling to explain the Peters’ role is not compromised by his stand. Trade and foreign policy are not related and Peters is free to continue opposing the FTA.

However it was Michael Cullen who declared not long ago that an FTA with China is a key foreign policy initiative. Maybe he just forgot to tell Peters!

Let the Olympic Torch Be

There is something sad surrounding the Olympic torch protests in London. The Olympic flame symbolises the Olympic spirit and not China’s human rights record.

One thing is true that the world would be worse off if there were no Olympic Games. Apart from China the Olympics have been held in countries where the record of human rights has been less that exemplary. The 1936 Games held in Berlin were used by the Nazis as a propaganda tool but in the end they have been remembered for the wonderful athletic performances of Jesse Owens. Those Games exposed the myth of the Nazis theory of Aryan racial superiority.

In 1976 African nations boycotted the Olympics in Montréal because of New Zealand’s sporting links with South Africa. No one cared and the great African runners did not get a chance to show how good they were.

The 1980 Olympics were held in Moscow just after the Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan.

There is hardly a nation on the face of the earth that has held the Olympics and could claim to satisfy everyone everywhere in regard to its policies foreign or domestic.

It is right that China’s human rights record should be scrutinised but targeting a symbol of peace and humanity is not the way to do it.

Climate facts to warm to by Owen McShane

Climate Change still with us but Global Warming Cancelled - or

Being in the Hottest Spot at the Right Time

Unlike so many of the hapless victims on TVOne’s daily Crimewatch – (also known as TVOne News) I have recently been lucky enough to be in two right places at the right time.

In December, last year, at the UN conference in Bali, I heard Viscount Monckton present a paper prepared by himself, the Australian Dr David Evans, and our own Dr Vincent Gray (who were at Bali too) which showed that while the IPCC models predict that greenhouse gases would produce an extensive “hot spot” in the upper troposphere over the tropics the satellite measurements show no such hotspots have appeared.

Monckton and Evans found that a large part of this discrepancy is the result of some basic errors in the IPCC’s assessment of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. When they applied their revised factor to the effect of greenhouse gases the temperature rise was about a third of that predicted by the IPCC.

So by late last year we not only knew IPCC forecasts of atmospheric global warming were wrong; we were beginning to understand why they are wrong.

The key issue in this debate is whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases or natural solar activities, are the prime drivers of climate change. A closely related argument is whether or not the climate is highly sensitive to carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. Put together, these uncertainties raise doubts as to whether the IPCC models can accurately forecast the climate over the long term. If they cannot, then we have to wonder how much damage we should risk doing to the world’s economies in attempts to manage the possibly adverse effects of these “predictions”.

The findings that the predicted “tropical hotspots” do not exist are important because the IPCC models assume these “hotspots” will be formed by increased evaporation from warmer oceans leading to the accumulations of higher concentrations of water vapour in the upper atmosphere, and thereby generating a positive feedback which reinforces the small amount of warming which can be caused by CO₂ alone.

Atmospheric scientists generally agree that as carbon dioxide levels increase there is a law of “diminishing returns” – or more properly “diminishing effects” – and that ongoing increases in CO2 concentration do not generate proportional increases in temperature. The common analogy is painting over window glass. The first layers of paint cut out lots of light but subsequent layers have diminishing impact.

So, you might be asking, why the panic? Why does Al Gore talk about temperatures spiraling out of control, causing mass extinctions and catastrophic rises in sea-level, and all his other disastrous outcomes when there is no evidence to support it?

The alarmists argue that increased CO₂ leads to more water vapour – the main greenhouse gas and this water vapour provides positive feedback and hence makes the overall climate highly sensitive to small increases in the concentration of CO₂. Consequently, the IPCC argues that while carbon dioxide may well “run out of puff” the consequent evaporation of water vapour provides the positive feedback loop which will make anthropogenic global warming reach dangerous levels.

This assumption that water vapour provides positive feedback lies behind the famous “tipping point” which nourishes Al Gore’s dreams of destruction, and indeed all those calls for action now – “before it is too late!” However, no climate models predict such a “tipping point”.

However, while the absence of hot spots has refuted one important aspect of the IPCC models we lack a mechanism which fully explains these supposed outcomes. Hence the IPCC, and its supporters, have been able to ignore this “refutation”.

So by the end of last year, we were in a similar situation to the 19th Century astronomers who had figured out that the Sun could not be “burning” its fuel – or it would have turned to ashes long ago – but could not explain where the ongoing energy was coming from. Then along came Einstein and E=mc².

Similarly, the climate skeptics have had to explain why the hotspots are not where they should be – not just challenge the theory with their observations.

This is why I felt so lucky to be in the right place at the right time when I heard Roy Spencer speak at the New York conference in March of this year. At first I thought this was just another paper setting out observations against the forecasts, further confirming Evan’s earlier work. But as the argument unfolded I realized that Roy Spencer was drawing on observations and measurements from the new Aqua satellites to explain the mechanism behind this anomaly between model forecasts and observation. You may have heard that the IPCC models cannot predict clouds and rain with any accuracy. Their models assume that the water vapour goes up to the troposphere and hangs around to cook us all in a greenhouse future.

However, there is a mechanism at work, which washes out the water-vapour (as it were) and returns it to the oceans, along with the extra CO₂ and thus turns the added water vapour into a NEGATIVE feedback mechanism.

The newly discovered mechanism is a combination of clouds and rain! (Spencer’s mechanism adds to the mechanism earlier identified by Prof Lindzen called the Iris effect.)

The IPCC models assumed that the water vapour formed clouds at high altitudes which lead to further warming. The Aqua satellite observations and Spencer’s analysis show that the water vapour actually forms clouds at low altitudes which lead to cooling.

Furthermore, Spencer shows that the extra rain which falls from these clouds cools the underlying oceans providing a second negative feedback to negate the CO₂ warming. (see image.)

This has struck the alarmists like a thunderbolt, especially as the lead author of the IPCC chapter on feedback has written to Roy Spencer agreeing that he is right!

There goes the alarmist neighbourhood!

The climate is not highly sensitive to CO₂ warming because the water vapour is a damper against the warming effect of CO₂.

That is why history is full of Ice Ages – where other effects, such as increased reflection from the ice cover, do provide positive feedback – while we do not hear about Heat Ages. The Medieval Warm Period for example is known for being benignly warm – not dangerously hot.

We live on a benign planet – except when it occasionally gets damned cold.

While I have done my best to simplify these developments they remain highly technical and many people distrust their own ability to assess competing scientific claims. However, in this case the “tipping point theories” are based on models which do not include the effects of rain and clouds.
The new NASA Aqua Satellite is the first satellite to actually measure the effects of clouds and rainfall. Spencer’s interpretation of the new data now means that our models now include the effects of rain and clouds and thus make all previous models and forecasts obsolete. Would anyone trust long-term forecasts of farm production which were hopeless at forecasting rainfall?

The implications of these breakthroughs in measurement and understanding are dramatic to say the least. The responses will be fun to watch.

Sprawl link to fat tenuous

For some time now urban planners have been trying to convince people that the suburbs are bad for us. They claim that living in the "burbs" means that suburbanites are dependent on cars and don't get enough exercise and contributes to obesity. According to urban plannerslLiving in high density housing around transport nodes is better for our health.

Now a study has come out to put that far fetched theory to rest.

"There's a lot of talk about redesigning cities and the expectation that they will affect people's health and weight in particular, but what these results tell us is that those expectations are probably incorrect," said Professor Matthew Turner of the University of Toronto and a co-author of the study.

Moreover, data was released from the Flinders University Achieving a Healthy Home Environment study which surveyed the homes and lifestyles of 280 families in the southern suburbs of Adelaide and found that the size and set-up of homes contributed largely to how fit and healthy young children were. Larger section meant healthier kids.

Sprawl link to fat tenuous - 05 Apr 2008 - NZ Herald

Bold steps needed to arrest slide

Revenue taxes are needed to finance necessary government spending, but they are a drag on the economy. This opinion piece penned by the author of the 2001 Tax Review, Rob McLeod, chairman of the Business Roundtable explains how tax cuts will help the NZ economy.

Rob McLeod: Bold steps needed to arrest slide - 03 Apr 2008 - nzherald

Press Release

Pakuranga Councillor Dick Quax has been quick to jump to the defence of Manukau’s large immigrant population following the attack on the Asian community by New Zealand First deputy leader, Peter Brown.

“Manukau City is the melting pot of New Zealand. Forty one percent of all Manukau people were born overseas”.

According to Cr Quax that presents a huge and exciting challenge and opportunity for the city.

“A very large number of people from Asia have made their home here especially in the eastern part of Manukau. We are better of economically, socially and culturally as a result of the immigration from Asia”.

“People here still recall the racist speech New Zealand leader, Winston Peters made in Howick leading up to the 1996 election. We don’t want him back and he can take his hate mongering elsewhere”.

We are a tolerant and welcoming city said Cr Quax himself an immigrant who came to New Zealand as a youngster with his family in the 1950s.

A Cool Look at Global Warming Speech to the NZ Business Round Table by The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson

In October 1989, Nigel Lawson, the longest-serving Chancellor of the Exchequer since the First World War, resigned after a very public row with the then Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher.

For ten years he had been one of the Government's chief policy makers, and for most of that time a key member of the Cabinet.

Lord Lawson served as Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1983 and 1989 under Margaret Thatcher, prior to this he served as Secretary of State for Energy between 1981 and 1983 and Financial Secretary to the Treasury between 1979 and 1981.

He has been a Member of the House of Lords since 1992

NZCPR guest

Williamson Right to Query Global Warming

Well, it seems my local PM, Maurice Williamson (National) has committed the most heinous crime known to the Labour Party and TV One. The crime he is charged with is not being a global warming alarmist. What I like about Williamson he researches issues and is not afraid to speak his mind. He doesn’t follow the common herd led by an idle media which has never looked at both sides of the climate change debate.

Williamson is smart enough to know that earth’s climate has always changed and informed enough to doubt anthropogenic global warming.

Oh, and one more thing there has been no global warming since 1998.

Claims senior Nat MPs deny climate change | POLITICS | NEWS | tvnz.co.nz

News Release from Owen McShane The Centre for Resource Management Studies

On the face of it, all the signs are that house prices will fall across the board – and indeed have already started falling.

Given that the CRMS has been predicting the bursting of the housing bubble for many years it would seem reasonable to expect the Centre to expect the market to finally correct itself and restore the "good old days" when the median house price was no more than three times the median household income.

However, price is largely determined by the relationship between supply and demand. While demand may well be falling it may also be that supply is continuing to fall just as quickly.

The global financial uncertainties which are squeezing home buyers are also squeezing those who supply both the sections and the dwellings to build on them.

All around the country, proposed residential subdivisions, both large and small, are being abandoned because the developers, large and small, cannot afford to service the holding costs or pay the compliance costs and development contributions, especially in advance of any sales.

Their financiers are increasingly unwilling to carry the risk.

We have long had a situation where any proposal to develop residential property of any kind in any location attracts objectors – and whether they number in their ones or twos, or in the thousands, they can delay projects for years.

Many of those objectors are now "dancing in the streets" because developers are withdrawing their proposals. Needless to say these happy objectors are already comfortably housed and have enjoyed their capital gains.

However, these withdrawals from the market may mean that supply remains so constrained that house prices will remain high and a jumbo load of New Zealanders will continue to leave for Australia every day.

Those who are delighting in abandoned developments in their neighbourhoods might soon begin to wonder who will be left to staff the hospitals and schools, and to build the houses, and to manage the farms, and even to pay their own pensions or for their own increasing demands on health care?

We can only hope that Councillors will realise that this is the time to make life a little easier for those who house our population, and our young skilled people in particular, rather than regard them as greedy

Brisbane to get 30,000 extra new homes - Breaking News - National - Breaking News

More than 30,000 new homes have been earmarked for Brisbane under a strategy to tackle a severe lack of supply.

Queensland not only faces a housing affordability crisis, but commercial space is at a record low, with the CBD market the second tightest in the country behind Perth.

The state government's Urban Land Development Authority was established last year to get land and housing on the market quicker.

Brisbane to get 30,000 extra new homes - Breaking News - National - Breaking News